Here comes the second pitch, which Cruz fouls off. 1-1.
Statistically, it is unlikely for Cornell to win this game. There have been 53 total MLB games that at one point featured this exact situation (11th inning, one out, runner on first, visitor up by one, 1-1 count).
43 of them were won by the visitor (Dartmouth, in this case). That’s a 19% win probability for Cornell.
But unlikeliness is what defines Chris Cruz.
In his three seasons recorded in the database BaseballR, he was a continually sub-par hitter. His batting average in 2012 was 0.258, a touch below the average for all Cornell hitters with more than 70 at-bats in a season (0.262). But what Cruz lacked in batting average, he made up for in Slugging Percentage, which weighs extra-base hits more heavily.
Here, in the quadrant defined by low batting averages and high slugging percentages, Cruz stands alone. Though below average at batting, when Cruz does indeed hit the ball, he hits it extremely well.
In fact, his extra-base hitting is so good that it is second in Cornell history since 2012, bested only by the runner on first waiting for the next pitch, Brian Billigen.